Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
54 0x548f…0918 crypto 134 markets active 4d ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$1 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate66%85W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$10
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$45
sports 8% −$67
other 8% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +0.9% -8.7% 67% 55% -8.8%
≤30d 128 -2.2% -11.6% 66% 54% -10.2%
≤90d 128 -2.2% -11.6% 66% 54% -10.2%
all 128 -2.2% -11.6% 66% 54% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 54% -10.2%
10% -20.0% 38% -18.8%
15% -27.7% 23% -26.6%
20% -34.8% 18% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$7 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses85 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)128 / 134
History coverage24d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $34 $27 −$7 (-21%)
Will Uruguay be the worst-placed South American nation in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $56 −$55 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $14 −$14 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $15 +$4 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $11 +$7 +66%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $9 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $18 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $13 +$9 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $12 $0 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$3 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 13 $12 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $9 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $18 +$6 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $31 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $13 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will United States win on 2 Jun 13 $2 +$8 +399%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 13 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$7 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 12 $27 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$5 +51%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $20 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$3 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $24 +$6 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $9 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $4 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $2 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Bo Nickal 99¢ $20 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Bo Nickal 77¢ $15 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $3 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 99¢ $18 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 60¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $17 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.18 · official $29.18 (match) · 597 history records