Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
54 0x5492…bac8 crypto 20 markets active 6d ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$286 (-57%) realized −$286 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate79%15W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 45% −$209
tech 33% −$165
other 18% +$92
politics 3% −$4
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 +0.6% -9.0% 100% 0% -9.0%
all 19 -10.4% -19.0% 79% 5% -62.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 5% -62.0%
10% -26.7% 5% -65.6%
15% -33.8% 5% -68.9%
20% -40.3% 5% -72.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$95 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses15 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)19 / 20
History coverage454d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $5 $0 +1%
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on January 15? Jan 16 $165 −$165 -100%
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on January 5? Jan 06 $92 +$92 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4AM ET Dec 04 $209 −$209 -100%
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? May 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? May 18 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? May 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? Apr 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? Apr 11 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? Apr 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? Mar 23 $1 $0 +0%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 15 $1 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $10 6d
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $5 86d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on January 15? BUY Up 50¢ $82 153d
Microsoft (MSFT) Up or Down on January 15? BUY Up 50¢ $83 153d
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on January 5? BUY Up 50¢ $86 164d
Russell 2000 (RUT) Up or Down on January 5? BUY Up 50¢ $7 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 3, 4AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $209 196d
Will Michael Bloomberg win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes $4 232d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $104K and $105K on May 23? BUY No 100¢ $1 390d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $98000 on May 16? BUY No 100¢ $1 397d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $93000 on May 9? BUY No 100¢ $1 404d
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will Bitcoin reach $110k in April? BUY No 100¢ $1 414d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Apr 25? BUY No 100¢ $1 418d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? BUY No 100¢ $1 425d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? SELL No 99¢ $1 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? BUY No 100¢ $1 432d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90000 on April 4? BUY No 100¢ $1 439d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $78000 on Mar 28? BUY No 100¢ $1 446d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $77000 on Mar 21? BUY No 100¢ $1 453d
Solana above $145 on March 14? BUY No 100¢ $1 460d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.10 · official $10.10 (match) · 41 history records