Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x549c…100a weather 259 markets active 0h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$59 (+8%) realized +$68 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate35%84W / 156L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$8
14 days−$36
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 +11.2% +0.6% 41% 39% +0.8%
≤30d 223 -5.0% -14.0% 34% 33% -19.0%
≤90d 240 -3.7% -12.9% 35% 34% -18.8%
all 240 -3.7% -12.9% 35% 34% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 34% -18.8%
10% -21.2% 31% -26.6%
15% -28.8% 26% -33.7%
20% -35.8% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized+$68
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses84 / 156
Open positions19
Markets (closed)240 / 259
History coverage66d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 240 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on June 29? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $12 $13 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 29? Yes 58¢ 76¢ $6 $7 +$2 (+32%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 29? Yes 23¢ 88¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+285%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 29? Yes 29¢ 98¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+236%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 29? Yes 64¢ 96¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+51%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 29? Yes 58¢ 32¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June 29? Yes 92¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-48%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 30? Yes 35¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 30? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 30? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 30? Yes 40¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30? Yes 50¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 30? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 30? Yes 38¢ 32¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 30? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 29? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 29? Yes 85¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 29? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 29? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 93 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 29 $1 +$1 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +99%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? Jun 29 $5 +$6 +112%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 27? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 27? Jun 28 $3 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 27? Jun 28 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 27? Jun 28 $2 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 28? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 28? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 28? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 27? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 27? Jun 27 $1 +$1 +77%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 26? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +169%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 26? Jun 27 $1 +$2 +149%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 26? Jun 27 $2 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 26? Jun 27 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 27? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 25? Jun 26 $1 +$3 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 26? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 26? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 25 $1 +$3 +245%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? Jun 25 $1 +$2 +193%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24? Jun 25 $1 +$2 +177%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 24 $1 +$3 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 23? Jun 24 $1 +$3 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 24 $1 +$2 +162%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 24 $1 +$3 +271%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 23? Jun 24 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 24? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 24? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY Yes 92¢ $3 21m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 29? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 21m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 22m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY Yes 77¢ $3 23m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 34°C on June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 30? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on Ju BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 30? BUY Yes 53¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on June 30? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 30? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 3h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 29? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 29? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 29? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju BUY Yes 6¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 29? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 29? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 29? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on June 29? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 28? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 28? BUY Yes 44¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 28? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 28? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju BUY Yes 46¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 28? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.57 · official $42.71 · 515 history records