Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:54:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x549e…8fc4 crypto 75 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (76 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$62 (+4%) realized +$66 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%41W / 33L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day76.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (76 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +6.4% -3.7% 55% 55% -6.4%
≤30d 74 +6.4% -3.7% 55% 55% -6.4%
≤90d 74 +6.4% -3.7% 55% 55% -6.4%
all 74 +6.4% -3.7% 55% 55% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover76.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.7% 55% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -12.9% 55% -15.3%
15% -21.4% 50% -23.5%
20% -29.1% 42% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$22 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$66
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses41 / 33
Open positions1
Markets (closed)74 / 75
History coverage1d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day76.4
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 74 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Up 51¢ 6¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$5 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $13 +$16 +127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $57 +$113 +196%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$6 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$15 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$30 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 17 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $4 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $4 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.54 · official $4.56 · 217 history records