Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T23:51:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x549f…7290 other 42 markets active 2h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 54% −$1
other 27% $0
politics 6% $0
economics 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -3.1% -12.3% 12% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 8 -3.1% -12.3% 12% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 13 -1.4% -10.8% 15% 0% -9.9%
all 42 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage456d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 42 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $38 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $4 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $6 $0 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $42 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $6 −$1 -14%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 21 $9 +$1 +7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 18 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 18 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 24 $9 $0 -1%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jun 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $111K and $113K on June 3? Jun 04 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $9 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? May 19 $9 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 18 $9 $0 +3%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 15 $9 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? May 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 10 $7 $0 -1%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 10 $8 $0 +0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal minority? May 09 $7 $0 -1%
Will Jean-Marc Aveline be the next pope? May 08 $8 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? May 07 $10 $0 +0%
Will Aaron Rodgers sign with the Minnesota Vikings? May 07 $10 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2025? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1500 on May 9? May 06 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 06 $10 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia in 2025? Apr 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 29 $12 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $38 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $38 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 33h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $38 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $7 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $6 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $39 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $38 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $42 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $42 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $43 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $43 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 46¢ $9 32d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $9 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 75¢ $43 33d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $43 33d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $3 34d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 34d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 34d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 62¢ $43 35d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 62¢ $43 35d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $6 35d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $34 35d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $39 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.00 · official $3.00 (match) · 89 history records