Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x549f…579d
other · 47 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses9 / 37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage259d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 1 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 54¢ 53¢ $32 $31 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $71 −$3 -4%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $22 +$7 +34%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Jun 11 $23 −$1 -3%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $3 $0 -7%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $66 −$1 -2%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Jan 31 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 14 $16 $0 -2%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $43 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $5 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 24 $11 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $12 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 18 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $4 $0 +4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 24 $2 $0 -9%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Oct 10 $3 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 09 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $18 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 08 $18 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan? Oct 06 $19 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $1 $0 +5%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 06 $6 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 05 $48 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by December 31? Oct 05 $1 $0 +5%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 04 $2 $0 -2%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 04 $22 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 04 $26 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 34% −$5
world 27% +$2
politics 19% −$1
crypto 10% $0
sports 5% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $18 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $14 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $68 4h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 66¢ $71 5h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $17 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 13h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 14h
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 40h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $64 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 56¢ $66 2d
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 175d
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $7 178d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 178d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 91¢ $16 181d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $5 198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $5 198d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 198d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 198d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? SELL No 81¢ $5 198d
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? BUY No 81¢ $5 198d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 77¢ $5 199d
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 77¢ $5 199d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? SELL No 80¢ $5 199d
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? BUY No 80¢ $5 199d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? SELL Yes 79¢ $5 199d
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? BUY Yes 79¢ $5 199d
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? SELL No 61¢ $5 199d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +3.6% -6.3% 20% 20% -8.5%
≤30d 5 +3.6% -6.3% 20% 20% -8.5%
≤90d 5 +3.6% -6.3% 20% 20% -8.5%
all 46 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.1% 2% -18.5%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.27 · official $31.27 (match) · 276 history records