Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:21:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54a0…4134 weather 122 markets active 1h ago coverage 367d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$46 (+1%) realized +$298 · open −$252
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%27W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$250
7 days−$88
14 days−$88
30 days−$88
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 76% −$340
other 15% +$189
world 7% −$225
culture 1% −$70
sports 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 82 -15.8% -23.8% 27% 24% -11.1%
≤30d 82 -15.8% -23.8% 27% 24% -11.1%
≤90d 82 -15.8% -23.8% 27% 24% -11.1%
all 107 -10.7% -19.2% 25% 23% -13.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.2% 23% -13.0%
10% -27.0% 23% -21.3%
15% -34.0% 21% -28.9%
20% -40.5% 20% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$35 · ×2.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

367d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$298
Unrealized−$252
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses27 / 80
Open positions15
Markets (closed)107 / 122
History coverage367d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $50 $41 −$9 (-17%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-32%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? Yes 10¢ 5¢ $30 $13 −$17 (-57%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C or below on June 15? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? No 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $44 $0 −$44 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 15? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $52 +$133 +256%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $51 +$37 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? Jun 14 $23 −$22 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $52 +$664 +1270%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $41 +$40 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $196 −$190 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 +$35 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 14? Jun 14 $152 −$78 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $102 +$34 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $164 +$17 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $124 −$39 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $132 −$102 -78%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 14? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $61 +$34 +55%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? Jun 13 $31 −$13 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $143 +$97 +68%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 −$40 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 15? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $256 +$135 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 −$27 -75%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $42 −$40 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $39 −$18 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $36 +$44 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$50 +160%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $31 +$56 +180%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $31 −$30 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $61 −$60 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $52 −$32 -62%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$61 +196%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $207 +$299 +144%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$90 +290%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 11? Jun 10 $52 −$50 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 36¢ $31 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $46 2h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 3h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 3h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 15? BUY No 10¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 95¢ $41 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 88¢ $13 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 89¢ $15 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 93¢ $69 6h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 94¢ $47 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 6h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $18 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 15? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 15h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 15h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 17°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $45 15h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 15? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.46 · official $191.46 (match) · 301 history records