Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54a1…c5a9 crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$675 (-15%) realized −$675 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%21W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$260
7 days+$125
14 days+$7
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$362
other 8% +$7
economics 4% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -39.4% -45.1% 14% 14% +37.5%
≤30d 10 -57.5% -61.6% 10% 10% -7.8%
≤90d 74 -32.0% -38.4% 28% 26% -20.9%
all 74 -32.0% -38.4% 28% 26% -20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 26% -20.9%
10% -44.3% 23% -28.5%
15% -49.7% 19% -35.4%
20% -54.6% 15% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$29 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$675
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses21 / 53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage71d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $86 +$280 +324%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $99 −$97 -97%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $32 −$31 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $48 −$47 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET May 14 $204 −$196 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET May 14 $240 −$32 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8AM ET May 14 $246 −$15 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3AM ET May 14 $5 +$41 +763%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6PM ET May 13 $49 +$22 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 5PM ET May 13 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5PM ET May 10 $282 −$279 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2PM ET May 10 $23 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 12PM ET May 10 $28 −$26 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7AM ET May 09 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5AM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3PM ET May 03 $59 −$26 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1PM ET May 03 $207 +$31 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12PM ET May 03 $254 +$217 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 2PM ET May 03 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6AM ET May 03 $344 −$15 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11AM ET May 03 $225 −$221 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 10AM ET May 03 $237 +$28 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9AM ET May 03 $322 +$124 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8AM ET May 03 $400 +$18 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 9PM ET May 03 $78 −$71 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2PM ET May 02 $15 −$8 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 12PM ET May 02 $81 +$41 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11AM ET May 02 $26 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 29 $172 −$172 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4PM ET Apr 29 $225 +$159 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3PM ET Apr 29 $87 +$26 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10AM ET Apr 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2PM ET Apr 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 1PM ET Apr 23 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 4PM ET Apr 23 $2 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3PM ET Apr 23 $8 +$7 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3PM ET Apr 22 $6 +$6 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 9AM ET Apr 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Apr 21 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Apr 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Apr 21 $8 +$2 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Apr 21 $8 +$2 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 100¢ $366 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 23¢ $86 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 46h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 47h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 47h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 3¢ $99 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 3d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 2¢ $32 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 0¢ $9 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 0¢ $3 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 0¢ $2 8d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 1¢ $7 8d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 3¢ $48 9d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $100 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $104 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 0¢ $1 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $214 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $5 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 326 history records