Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:18:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54a2…5dfe sports 534 markets active 7h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9,124 (+7%) realized +$9,136 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%259W / 273L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$260per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$504est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$188now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$137
7 days+$2,154
14 days+$2,830
30 days+$2,883
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$2,375
other 20% +$5,814
crypto 8% +$51
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +40.8% +27.4% 64% 64% +35.7%
≤30d 61 +3.2% -6.6% 49% 48% +14.6%
≤90d 163 +4.0% -5.9% 51% 48% -0.8%
all 532 +3.5% -6.4% 49% 47% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 47% -3.8%
10% -15.3% 47% -13.0%
15% -23.5% 46% -21.4%
20% -31.0% 45% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$244 vs −$202 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$188
Realized+$9,136
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses259 / 273
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$504
Open positions1
Markets (closed)532 / 534
History coverage130d
Avg bet$260
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 532 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 191 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 +$214 +105%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$34 +165%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $304 +$259 +85%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $102 +$131 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $102 −$66 -65%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 +$262 +129%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $101 +$68 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $293 +$320 +109%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $90 +$130 +146%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $67 −$66 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $67 −$39 -59%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $102 +$231 +226%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $204 +$352 +172%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $102 +$111 +109%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $305 +$79 +26%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $102 −$83 -82%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $912 +$667 +73%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $406 −$400 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $203 +$149 +73%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $1,009 +$1,281 +127%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $406 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $218 −$146 -67%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $508 +$534 +105%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $306 −$286 -93%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $203 +$19 +9%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $76 −$75 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 02 $51 −$50 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 31 $406 +$457 +112%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $107 −$105 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $1 −$1 -59%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 +$95 +93%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$82 -80%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 −$80 -79%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$68 -67%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Crystal Palace FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 24 $102 −$100 -98%
FC Bayern München vs. VfB Stuttgart: O/U 4.5 May 23 $101 +$18 +18%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $48 +$61 +129%
Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club: O/U 2.5 May 21 $51 −$50 -98%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score May 21 $101 +$95 +93%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 May 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 7h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 13h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 48¢ $203 18h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $102 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $54 34h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 37¢ $20 36h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $20 37h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $102 2d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $203 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 47¢ $102 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 15¢ $36 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $102 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $102 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $101 2d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $203 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY $10 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 50¢ $67 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 23¢ $27 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 54¢ $67 3d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $90 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $293 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 50¢ $102 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $204 3d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $102 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $101 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 48¢ $225 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere $18 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Natus Vincere 37¢ $102 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $188.39 · official $188.39 (match) · 998 history records