Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:19:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
54 0x54a3…9b39 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,997 (+36%) realized +$1,716 · open +$281
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +20% what you keep after slip
Net edge+20%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%4W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$1,108per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Fees−$51est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,281now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$2,765
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+36.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +50.3% +36.0% 100% 100% +40.0%
≤30d 4 +50.3% +36.0% 100% 100% +40.0%
≤90d 4 +50.3% +36.0% 100% 100% +40.0%
all 4 +50.3% +36.0% 100% 100% +40.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +36.0% 100% +40.0%
10% ← realistic here +23.0% 50% +26.6%
15% +11.1% 50% +14.4%
20% +0.2% 50% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$621 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,281
Realized+$1,716
Unrealized+$281
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses4 / 0
Est. fees paid−$51
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,108
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Aryna Sabalenka 78¢ 100¢ $1,000 $1,281 +$281 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria Jun 17 $1,013 +$773 +76%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 17 $1,521 +$1,345 +88%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $1,004 +$172 +17%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $996 +$194 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 78¢ $1,007 1h
Nottingham Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Tatjana Maria BUY Tatjana Maria 56¢ $1,013 1h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 53¢ $507 4h
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Emma Navarro 52¢ $1,014 4h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $1,190 5h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 85¢ $1,004 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 89¢ $92 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 82¢ $603 6h
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala BUY Alexandra Eala 84¢ $301 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,281.41 · official $1,281.41 (match) · 12 history records