Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T18:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
54 0x54a4…ff17 crypto 231 markets active 1h ago coverage 67d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$72 (+3%) realized +$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate66%153W / 78L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$43
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$16
other 1% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +12.9% +2.1% 74% 63% -2.0%
≤30d 35 -6.1% -15.1% 63% 49% -8.2%
≤90d 231 -1.5% -10.9% 66% 48% -7.8%
all 231 -1.5% -10.9% 66% 48% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.9% 48% -7.8%
10% -19.4% 35% -16.6%
15% -27.2% 27% -24.7%
20% -34.4% 20% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

67d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses153 / 78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)231 / 231
History coverage67d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 231 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$8 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$11 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 25 $25 −$20 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $26 +$14 +53%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $15 +$14 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$5 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$7 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $30 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$2 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $21 −$16 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 12 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 12 $7 +$3 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 12 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 12 $12 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 12 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 12 $5 +$3 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET May 12 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET May 12 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET May 12 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 12 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET May 12 $5 +$2 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $20 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $25 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 18¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $39 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 450 history records