Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:54:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54a5…a25f crypto 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-6%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day35.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -16.8% -24.8% 42% 25% -22.0%
≤30d 12 -16.8% -24.8% 42% 25% -22.0%
≤90d 12 -16.8% -24.8% 42% 25% -22.0%
all 12 -16.8% -24.8% 42% 25% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.8% 25% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -32.0% 25% -29.4%
15% -38.5% 8% -36.3%
20% -44.6% 0% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day35.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$4 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET SELL Up 40¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 4¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET SELL Up 75¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 67¢ $4 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 35 history records