Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54a9…66dc crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$28 (+3%) realized +$28 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%12W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day38.6pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$125
other 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-38.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -31.7% -38.2% 38% 34% -22.9%
≤30d 32 -31.7% -38.2% 38% 34% -22.9%
≤90d 32 -31.7% -38.2% 38% 34% -22.9%
all 32 -31.7% -38.2% 38% 34% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -38.2% 34% -22.9%
10% ← realistic here -44.1% 28% -30.3%
15% -49.5% 9% -37.0%
20% -54.4% 6% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$12 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$28
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses12 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage2d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day38.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$14 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$16 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 25 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$21 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$19 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $14 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$25 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $77 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $28 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$5 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 25 $15 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 25 $132 −$8 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 25 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 25 $101 +$15 +15%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $36 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $36 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $34 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $34 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $27 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 87 history records