Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:46:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54af…3130 crypto 921 markets active 0h ago coverage 15d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 15d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (168 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$378 (-1%) realized −$391 · open +$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate29%414W / 997L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day168.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$776
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (168 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 644 -33.9% -40.2% 19% 5% -41.9%
≤30d 1411 -5.4% -14.4% 29% 20% -22.5%
≤90d 1411 -5.4% -14.4% 29% 20% -22.5%
all 1411 -5.4% -14.4% 29% 20% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover168.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 20% -22.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 19% -29.9%
15% -30.1% 18% -36.7%
20% -37.0% 17% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$391
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses414 / 997
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1411 / 921
History coverage15d ⚠
Avg bet$31
Trades / day168.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1411 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Up 85¢ 48¢ $25 $14 −$11 (-44%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 0¢ 52¢ $0 $13 +$13 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 16, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$12 -3136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -206%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $0 −$1 -267%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -637%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $15 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $10 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $15 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $8 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $3 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $15 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $10 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $7 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $15 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $3 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $10 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $89 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $15 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $7 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $10 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.60 · official $14.10 · 3500 history records