Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
54 0x54b0…df70 sports 109 markets active 1h ago coverage 231d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,600 (+2%) realized +$1,615 · open −$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate53%57W / 50L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$691per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$25
14 days−$25
30 days−$25
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$1,626
other 0% −$33
crypto 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-18.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -37.1% -43.1% 38% 25% -18.3%
≤30d 8 -37.1% -43.1% 38% 25% -18.3%
≤90d 42 -62.6% -66.2% 14% 12% -81.2%
all 107 -10.2% -18.8% 53% 44% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.8% 44% -7.6%
10% -26.6% 36% -16.4%
15% -33.6% 32% -24.5%
20% -40.2% 17% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -79% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$549) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$461 vs −$494 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

231d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$1,615
Unrealized−$15
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses57 / 50
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)107 / 109
History coverage231d
Avg bet$691
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 60¢ 54¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-11%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 69¢ 50¢ $34 $25 −$10 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $18 −$13 -72%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +86%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $105 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
LoL: FRK vs LNG Esports (BO3) Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Apr 10 $1,127 −$1,127 -100%
Counter-Strike: ARCRED vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) Apr 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoff Apr 10 $600 −$600 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Weibo Gaming (BO3) Apr 10 $8 −$8 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Vietnam (BO1) Apr 10 $270 −$270 -100%
Counter-Strike: WW Team vs Rebels Gaming (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Apr 10 $107 −$107 -100%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) Apr 10 $581 −$581 -100%
Flames vs. Blackhawks Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: Bilibili Gaming vs Gen.G Esports (BO1) Apr 10 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs AaB esport (BO3) Apr 10 $277 −$277 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 10 $2,274 −$2,274 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Apr 10 $10 −$4 -42%
Counter-Strike: los kogutos vs FORZE Reload (BO3) Apr 10 $18 −$18 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner Apr 10 $822 −$822 -100%
LoL: Japan vs Team Liquid (BO1) Apr 10 $9 −$9 -100%
Honduras Election: Nasralla flips Asfura by Wednesday 12 PM ET? Apr 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Yakult Brothers (BO1) Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Apr 10 $278 −$278 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Apr 10 $266 −$266 -100%
LoL: Los Ratones vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO1) Apr 10 $3,968 −$3,968 -100%
LoL: Anubis Gaming vs 3BL Esports (BO3) - Arabian League Group Stage Apr 10 $309 −$309 -100%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Most Wanted (BO3) Apr 10 $200 −$200 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Fnatic (BO1) - LEC Versus Regular Season Apr 10 $2,805 −$2,805 -100%
Sharks vs. Wild Apr 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 G Apr 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 (BO3) Apr 10 $253 −$253 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs ShindeN (BO3) - IEM Rio: Americas Closed Qualifi Apr 10 $737 −$737 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) Apr 10 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Apr 10 $42 −$42 -100%
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Galions (BO1) - LFL Invitational Super Group Mar 20 $12 +$63 +525%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Mar 20 $1,120 +$335 +30%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage Mar 20 $1,120 +$778 +70%
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifie Mar 20 $7 −$1 -17%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs Feb 13 $99 +$99 +100%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoff Feb 13 $563 +$241 +43%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Feb 13 $911 −$911 -100%
LoL: Ground Zero Gaming vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Feb 12 $1,979 −$1,979 -100%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Pigeons (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Feb 12 $137 +$19 +14%
Valorant: FURIA Academy vs Paysandu E-Sports (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group Feb 12 $36 +$14 +39%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Ki Feb 12 $325 +$219 +67%
Valorant: DRX vs VARREL (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoffs Feb 05 $549 +$258 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 69¢ $35 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 26¢ $5 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 24¢ $5 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 45¢ $9 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 45¢ $1 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 45¢ $1 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 40¢ $8 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 40¢ $2 25h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 57¢ $6 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 42h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 44¢ $11 43h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $16 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $6 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 47¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 47¢ $5 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 95¢ $100 6d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs paiN (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY TheMongolz 59¢ $1,120 124d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Heroic (BO5) - BLAST Slam Playoffs BUY Heroic 31¢ $911 124d
LoL: Vitality.Bee vs Galions (BO1) - LFL Invitational Super Group BUY Vitality.Bee 16¢ $12 124d
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoff BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $43 124d
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoff BUY Gentle Mates 50¢ $557 124d
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoffs BUY Fnatic 50¢ $99 124d
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Kickoff Playoff BUY T1 70¢ $563 124d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY Vitality 77¢ $560 124d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stage BUY Vitality 77¢ $560 124d
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 G BUY Phantom 51¢ $5 124d
Counter-Strike: ENJOY vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifie BUY VP.Prodigy 60¢ $7 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.33 · official $69.58 (match) · 321 history records