Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x54b3…e4c5 other 19 markets active 2d ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4 (-3%) realized +$12 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +164% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +129% what you keep after slip
Net edge+129%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$18
other 31% −$4
sports 8% +$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+138.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +163.7% +138.6% 57% 57% +142.0%
≤30d 7 +163.7% +138.6% 57% 57% +142.0%
≤90d 7 +163.7% +138.6% 57% 57% +142.0%
all 7 +163.7% +138.6% 57% 57% +142.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +138.6% 57% +142.0%
10% +115.8% 57% +118.8%
15% +94.9% 43% +97.7%
20% +75.8% 29% +78.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +167% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +164% · $-wt +167% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.94 per $1 lost it wins $4.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$12
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)7 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $81 $63 −$18 (-23%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 13¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 62¢ 92¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+48%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 22¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+43%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-41%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? No 26¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Scott McTominay score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 42¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +250%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $1 +$11 +1116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $108.44 · official $108.44 (match) · 31 history records