Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:33:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54b3…f0be weather 450 markets active 1h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$861 (+3%) realized +$940 · open −$79
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate69%309W / 136L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day13.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$1,246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$165
14 days−$701
30 days−$881
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 68% +$1,081
world 11% −$28
sports 10% +$35
other 5% −$196
politics 5% −$12
crypto 2% −$114
tech 0% +$16
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -20.7% -28.3% 65% 25% -28.4%
≤30d 68 -32.9% -39.3% 46% 29% -39.0%
≤90d 184 -11.8% -20.2% 67% 41% -16.1%
all 445 -5.9% -14.9% 69% 42% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 42% -6.5%
10% -23.0% 23% -15.5%
15% -30.4% 15% -23.6%
20% -37.3% 9% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$16 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$1,246
Realized+$940
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses309 / 136
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)445 / 450
History coverage155d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day13.1
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? No 90¢ 88¢ $1,100 $1,082 −$18 (-2%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $100 $142 +$43 (+43%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $102 $1 −$101 (-99%)
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $25 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $9 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 20? Jun 20 $2 $0 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3 $0 +3%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $200 +$8 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $2 −$1 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? Jun 19 $3 −$2 -76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $63 +$64 +101%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $26 −$17 -66%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 14? Jun 15 $172 +$24 +14%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $17 −$16 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 +$10 +219%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $49 +$8 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $50 +$8 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $82 +$9 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 25? Jun 10 $217 +$12 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 3°C on March 25? Jun 10 $16 +$2 +16%
LoL: T1 Academy vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challen Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on April 26? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 2°C on February 20? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on May 9? Jun 10 $9 −$4 -42%
Jazz vs. Hawks Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Celtics vs. Suns Jun 10 $14 −$14 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Jun 10 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -5°C on March 2? Jun 10 $41 −$41 -100%
Jazz vs. Pacers Jun 10 $26 −$26 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 5? Jun 10 $1 $0 +2%
Clippers vs. Kings Jun 10 $40 −$40 -100%
Wizards vs. Nets Jun 10 $35 −$35 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 5°C on April 2? Jun 10 $131 −$131 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Grizzlies Jun 10 $116 −$116 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 8? Jun 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C or below on May 6? Jun 10 $4 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 7°C on April 5? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Oly Jun 10 $11 −$11 -100%
Kings vs. Mavericks Jun 10 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be -7°C on March 1? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on May 26? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on April 16? Jun 10 $1 $0 +44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $501 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $501 1h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 16h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $10 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 96¢ $25 20h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 20? BUY Yes 74¢ $4 24h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 20? SELL Yes 40¢ $3 24h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 20? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 24h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 39h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 93¢ $1 39h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 97¢ $2 39h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 63¢ $11 40h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 96¢ $200 43h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 47h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? SELL No 4¢ $1 47h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 15¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 19? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 19? BUY No 15¢ $1 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $1 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $60 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 94¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? SELL Yes 90¢ $62 3d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,246.50 · official $1,247.16 (match) · 2444 history records