Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:56:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54b4…0f58 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$4 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$37now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$2
other 31% −$4
tech 10% −$1
politics 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
sports 2% $0
weather 2% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 11 -10.9% -19.4% 18% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 11 -10.9% -19.4% 18% 0% -9.7%
all 45 -4.2% -13.3% 36% 2% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 2% -10.3%
10% -21.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -29.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -36.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$37
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage458d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 04 $16 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 03 $49 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $55 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $3 $0 -16%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $2 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 17 $7 $0 +3%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Jul 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 05 $8 $0 +0%
Will Superman be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in July? Jul 04 $7 $0 +1%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jul 04 $8 $0 -1%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times June 27–July 4? Jul 03 $7 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Jul 03 $8 $0 -2%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 02 $2 $0 -2%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jul 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 50,000-100,000 betwee Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 02 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Jul 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 05 $1 $0 +2%
Will Peter Dutton be the next Prime Minister of Australia after the 20 May 06 $1 $0 +5%
Will Angelo Scola be the next pope? Apr 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Rumble buy TikTok? Apr 18 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 17 $9 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? Apr 15 $9 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 14 $9 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Justin Trudeau be named in Epstein files? Apr 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times March 28 - April 4? Apr 03 $12 −$4 -36%
TikTok sale announced before April? Mar 29 $1 −$1 -53%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Mar 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 President’s Trophy? Mar 28 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $2,600.00 again by March 31? Mar 26 $14 $0 -0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 24 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 65°F or higher on March 16? Mar 18 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 33¢ $39 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $42 7h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $42 7h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 54¢ $2 13d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $15 14d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $16 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 14d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $34 14d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $42 14d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $42 14d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $11 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 15d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $27 15d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 15d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $24 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 18d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $39 18d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $39 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $29 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 95¢ $28 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.42 · official $37.17 (match) · 137 history records