Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:44:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
54 0x54b4…8b0b sports 12 markets active 3h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$17 (+8%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$108
7 days+$3
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$40
crypto 10% −$20
other 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -17.9% -25.7% 27% 27% -8.0%
≤30d 12 -3.2% -12.4% 33% 33% -2.7%
≤90d 12 -3.2% -12.4% 33% 33% -2.7%
all 12 -3.2% -12.4% 33% 33% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 33% -2.7%
10% -20.8% 33% -12.0%
15% -28.4% 33% -20.5%
20% -35.5% 33% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +65% → late -72% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$16 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage10d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $10 +$7 +70%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $31 +$100 +325%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -95%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $19 +$22 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $8 +$12 +158%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 2h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 12¢ $21 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $31 24h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 28¢ $10 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 58¢ $10 30h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 50¢ $41 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $11 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 41¢ $7 4d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes SELL Golden Knights 41¢ $2 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 23¢ $31 5d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 42¢ $10 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $19 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 38¢ $8 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records