Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:19:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54b5…4b31
sports · 72 markets active 10h ago
0.0score
−$11,384 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$111,740 · open −$44,413
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$98,756
Realized−$111,740
Unrealized−$44,413
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses32 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)54%
Est. fees paid−$1,297
Open positions83
Markets (closed)52 / 72
Avg bet$5,086
Trades / day341.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 83 History 52 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$95,569
7 days−$92,715
14 days−$111,740
30 days−$111,740
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 96¢ $5,462 $33,547 +$28,085 (+514%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 23¢ 78¢ $4,547 $15,700 +$11,153 (+245%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $8,000 $8,475 +$475 (+6%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 31¢ 44¢ $4,633 $6,717 +$2,084 (+45%)
Will the Republicans win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 60¢ 60¢ $6,038 $5,950 −$88 (-1%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 69¢ 74¢ $4,139 $4,464 +$325 (+8%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 13¢ 39¢ $1,007 $3,112 +$2,105 (+209%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 7¢ 20¢ $1,107 $2,925 +$1,818 (+164%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 30¢ 72¢ $1,201 $2,878 +$1,677 (+140%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $2,362 $2,300 −$62 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Yes 71¢ 79¢ $1,414 $1,580 +$166 (+12%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 52¢ 62¢ $1,046 $1,250 +$204 (+20%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $945 $1,092 +$147 (+16%)
Will Petr Yan fight Merab Dvalishvili next? Yes 76¢ 64¢ $1,143 $953 −$190 (-17%)
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $728 $744 +$16 (+2%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 45¢ 14¢ $1,788 $580 −$1,208 (-68%)
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $310 $515 +$205 (+66%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 28¢ 27¢ $452 $437 −$15 (-3%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 66¢ 55¢ $528 $436 −$92 (-17%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $330 $285 −$45 (-14%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 62¢ 88¢ $186 $265 +$79 (+42%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? No 28¢ 52¢ $140 $260 +$120 (+86%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 83¢ 84¢ $249 $251 +$1 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 20¢ 11¢ $407 $224 −$183 (-45%)
Will France reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 21¢ 17¢ $224 $181 −$43 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 12 $51 +$18 +36%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1,858 +$57 +3%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $545 +$341 +62%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $367 −$266 -72%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $158 −$158 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1,120 −$580 -52%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $130 +$171 +132%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $90 −$90 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $375 +$24,100 +6422%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $374 −$367 -98%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $145,873 −$118,906 -82%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $890 +$110 +12%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 10 $190 +$113 +60%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $550 +$450 +82%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,490 +$50 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 09 $10 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Equatorial Guinea 0 - 0 Comoros? Jun 08 $500 +$500 +100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $157 +$61 +39%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $320 −$320 -100%
Map Handicap: B8 (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) Jun 08 $356 −$337 -95%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $660 +$340 +52%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $986 +$478 +48%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $240 +$260 +108%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $1,820 +$1,961 +108%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $63 +$30 +48%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 07 $6 +$2 +29%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1,227 +$137 +11%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 07 $226 +$50 +22%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $528 +$173 +33%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $290 −$160 -55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $390 +$110 +28%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $250 +$170 +68%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $132 −$36 -27%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 06 $615 +$50 +8%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs BIG - Map 1 Winner Jun 05 $34 −$34 -100%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $180 −$167 -93%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $787 −$573 -73%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 05 $975 −$357 -37%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $436 +$5 +1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $37,808 −$23,286 -62%
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $1,775 −$1,410 -79%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 05 $4,655 −$1,377 -30%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 04 $2,016 +$85 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 04 $280 −$280 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $38,607 +$6,351 +16%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $472 +$307 +65%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $255 +$245 +96%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $207 +$93 +45%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $234 −$234 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$87,369
politics 37% −$78,797
sports 11% +$1,469
crypto 8% +$6,071
world 3% +$2,660
tech 0% −$187
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 74¢ $294 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 74¢ $45 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $151 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $113 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $754 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $210 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $56 10h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 10h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $728 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $11 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $11 11h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 79¢ $40 11h
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 11h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 74¢ $15 12h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 74¢ $131 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $21 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 12h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $30 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $169 13h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 47¢ $1,410 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $63 13h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $82 13h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $325 13h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $995 13h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag SELL Natus Vincere 16¢ $95 13h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 80¢ $83 14h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? SELL Yes 80¢ $256 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +47.2% +33.2% 62% 50% -69.4%
≤30d 52 +37.1% +24.0% 62% 50% -55.6%
≤90d 52 +37.1% +24.0% 62% 50% -55.6%
all 52 +37.1% +24.0% 62% 50% -55.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover341.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +24.0% 50% -55.6%
10% +12.1% 42% -59.8%
15% ← realistic here +1.3% 37% -63.7%
20% -8.6% 27% -67.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98,756.17 · official $98,755.70 (match) · 3500 history records