Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T01:34:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54b9…a7cb
other · 7 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$26 -35%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$30 · open +$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$9
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses1 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage38d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%
Chart Positions 1 History 6 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: United States (-1.5) United States 23¢ 40¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+76%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Knicks 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 10 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? May 08 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $10 −$9 -88%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 83% −$24
sports 16% −$2
crypto 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 23¢ $6 1h
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) BUY Knicks 49¢ $6 2d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 60¢ $4 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? SELL Yes 58¢ $36 13d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 13d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 33d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-08? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 37d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 37d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-80.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 2 -40.6% -46.3% 50% 50% -9.8%
≤90d 6 -78.0% -80.1% 17% 17% -50.3%
all 6 -78.0% -80.1% 17% 17% -50.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.1% 17% -50.3%
10% -82.0% 0% -55.0%
15% -83.7% 0% -59.4%
20% -85.3% 0% -63.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.44 · official $9.44 (match) · 14 history records