Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:19:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
54 0x54bd…176c world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 544d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+3%) realized +$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate36%32W / 57L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$2
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$9
politics 21% −$13
other 20% +$6
sports 19% +$85
crypto 6% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-4.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.4% -4.6% 43% 14% -10.9%
≤30d 20 +1.2% -8.5% 30% 5% -10.5%
≤90d 63 -0.2% -9.7% 24% 3% -10.0%
all 89 +5.3% -4.7% 36% 10% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.7% 10% -7.0%
10% -13.8% 8% -15.9%
15% -22.1% 6% -24.1%
20% -29.8% 6% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

544d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses32 / 57
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)89 / 90
History coverage544d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 82¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $26 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $32 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $12 −$5 -41%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $3 +$2 +79%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $33 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $144 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $78 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $67 +$1 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $35 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $63 −$3 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $34 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $36 +$1 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $37 −$4 -10%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $36 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 15 $37 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $37 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $118 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $7 $0 -1%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $2 $0 -8%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $44 −$1 -1%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $6 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $57 −$1 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $37 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $7 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $37 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $46 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $45 $0 +1%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $42 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 03 $1 $0 -3%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 02 $2 $0 -4%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $43 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $2 $0 -2%
Will Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 National League Championship Seri Mar 31 $32 $0 +0%
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the Mar 29 $5 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $32 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $32 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $10 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $19 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $29 27h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $26 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $26 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $32 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $32 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $7 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 32¢ $12 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $16 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $16 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $17 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 45¢ $18 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $35 9d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $31 10d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $31 10d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $35 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $35 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.58 · official $0.00 (match) · 324 history records