Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:04:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
54 0x54bd…a84f crypto 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 612d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,443 (-12%) realized −$2,440 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate98%48W / 1L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$385per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$2,531now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 51% −$2,468
crypto 48% +$21
other 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 4 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 9 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 49 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 0% -22.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -22.5%
10% -18.3% 0% -29.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -36.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2,468 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

612d coverage
Net worth$2,531
Realized−$2,440
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses48 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)49 / 51
History coverage612d
Avg bet$385
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,594 $1,591 −$3 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? No 100¢ 100¢ $940 $940 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $720 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,810 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $411 +$9 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $2,106 +$4 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? Apr 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? Apr 02 $45 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? Apr 02 $48 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 12 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? Mar 12 $38 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 12 $43 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 12 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 12 $66 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Feb 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 Feb 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? Feb 17 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? Feb 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Feb 17 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? Feb 17 $75 +$1 +1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from September 12 to September 19, Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will SOCDEM win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electio Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Oct 13 $5 $0 +1%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in September? Oct 13 $6 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Přísaha win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary electi Oct 13 $6 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.12 in September? Oct 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 13 $7 $0 +0%
Will Google be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Oct 13 $9 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Oct 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? Oct 13 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? Oct 13 $42 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 13 $57 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $15 $0 +1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $16 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $90 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $109 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 14 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 14 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 14 $71 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 14 $97 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $550 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $10,031 −$2,468 -25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,594 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $940 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,810 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $720 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,306 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $800 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 98¢ $411 5d
Will Ethereum dip to $200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $15 95d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $48 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $45 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $31 95d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $68 95d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $13 118d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $46 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $38 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $43 118d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $66 118d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in October? BUY No 99¢ $75 244d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $71 244d
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $11 244d
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025 BUY No 100¢ $13 244d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $20 244d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $15 244d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in September? BUY No 99¢ $42 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? BUY No 100¢ $57 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70K in September? BUY No 100¢ $18 273d
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $6 273d
Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $7 273d
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 98¢ $5 273d
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $5 273d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,531.28 · official $2,531.28 (match) · 104 history records