Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:56:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54c2…23ad sports 127 markets active 4d ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,938 (-3%) realized −$11,938 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%59W / 68L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,497per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$6,383est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$22,154
14 days−$33,682
30 days−$23,190
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$13,994
crypto 1% −$1,281
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -18.6% -26.3% 38% 38% -29.3%
≤30d 77 -10.7% -19.2% 42% 42% -18.5%
≤90d 127 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 46% -12.7%
all 127 -4.1% -13.2% 46% 46% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.2% 46% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 46% -21.0%
15% -29.1% 43% -28.6%
20% -36.1% 38% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$5,070) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +6% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3,217 vs −$3,016 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$11,938
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses59 / 68
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$6,383
Open positions0
Markets (closed)127 / 127
History coverage42d
Avg bet$3,497
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 127 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $8,992 −$8,901 -99%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 13 $12,863 −$12,733 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6,991 −$6,878 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $10,103 +$5,082 +50%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $5,096 −$5,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $4,274 −$4,187 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $9,962 +$6,283 +63%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $9,698 −$9,568 -99%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6,361 −$6,250 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8,084 −$7,920 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $6,440 +$11,604 +180%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $8,119 +$7,582 +93%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $5,096 +$8,733 +171%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner Jun 04 $4,777 −$4,690 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner Jun 04 $3,627 +$1,162 +32%
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 04 $8,157 −$8,000 -98%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 03 $1,025 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 03 $6,054 +$2,429 +40%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $4,541 +$2,643 +58%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Gaimin Gladiators (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 02 $6,032 +$2,048 +34%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $6,593 +$5,484 +83%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 02 $2,028 +$1,638 +81%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $1,811 −$1,783 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $5,876 −$5,800 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $6,053 +$10,339 +171%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $2,047 +$6,950 +340%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 30 $45 −$44 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $1,794 −$1,760 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 29 $1,200 −$1,192 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $821 −$818 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner May 29 $2,086 −$2,083 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $76 +$38 +50%
Counter-Strike: magic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 29 $2,000 +$1,919 +96%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Play May 29 $3,635 +$4,304 +118%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $1,973 +$1,639 +83%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe - Map 2 Winner May 29 $1,179 +$827 +70%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $2,141 −$2,096 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $1,008 −$994 -99%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner May 27 $2,031 −$2,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner May 27 $1,016 +$1,090 +107%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 27 $1,358 −$1,340 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Daniel Altmaier May 26 $1,368 −$1,347 -98%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Group May 26 $1,059 −$1,058 -100%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Ch May 26 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - European Pro Leag May 26 $396 +$161 +40%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects - Map 2 Winner May 26 $1,371 +$952 +69%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner May 26 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO5) - CBLOL Playoffs May 25 $2,299 −$709 -31%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 25 $1,502 −$1,480 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 66¢ $8,992 4d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY Spirit 66¢ $12,863 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $6,991 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $15,185 4d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 66¢ $10,103 4d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY PARIVISION 36¢ $5,096 4d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 31¢ $4,274 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $9,698 4d
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY B8 41¢ $6,361 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner SELL TheMongolz 99¢ $16,062 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $9,937 4d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 53¢ $25 4d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 31¢ $8,084 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $18,044 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 35¢ $6,440 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $15,701 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 50¢ $8,119 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $13,829 5d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 36¢ $5,096 5d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest - Map 2 Winner BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 38¢ $4,777 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner SELL Sharks 100¢ $4,789 13d
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks - Map 1 Winner BUY Sharks 75¢ $3,627 13d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 55¢ $769 13d
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY THUNDER dOWNUNDER 32¢ $7,388 13d
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 15¢ $1,025 14d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $1,400 15d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $396 15d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $72 15d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $29 15d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Liquid (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage SELL BetBoom Team 99¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 426 history records