trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 11 | -46.0% | -51.1% | 36% | 36% | -21.0% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -50.5% | -55.2% | 33% | 33% | -27.1% |
| ≤90d | 12 | -50.5% | -55.2% | 33% | 33% | -27.1% |
| all | 20 | -47.2% | -52.2% | 25% | 25% | -1.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -52.2% | 25% | -1.0% |
| 10% | -56.8% | 20% | -10.5% |
| 15% | -61.0% | 20% | -19.1% |
| 20% | -64.8% | 10% | -27.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? | Yes | 35¢ | 16¢ | $20 | $9 | −$11 (-56%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $30 | −$30 | -99% |
| Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? | Jun 21 | $86 | +$17 | +20% |
| Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? | Jun 20 | $58 | +$28 | +48% |
| Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? | Jun 20 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? | Jun 19 | $33 | −$13 | -40% |
| Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $37 | +$18 | +49% |
| Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? | Jun 19 | $10 | −$8 | -80% |
| Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? | Jun 18 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 18 | $10 | −$10 | -97% |
| Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? | Jun 17 | $54 | −$54 | -99% |
| Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? | Jun 17 | $34 | +$20 | +57% |
| Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $30 | −$29 | -98% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Jan 12 | $33 | −$4 | -12% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? | Jan 12 | $174 | −$8 | -5% |
| Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? | Jan 08 | $366 | −$96 | -26% |
| MSFT shareholders vote for Bitcoin investment? | Dec 10 | $464 | −$269 | -58% |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | Nov 07 | $1,000 | +$730 | +73% |
| 4 games in Celtics v. Mavs series? | Jul 09 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2024 meeting? | Jun 14 | $20 | −$20 | -100% |
| Luka Doncic 50+ points in a NBA Finals game? | Jun 14 | $24 | −$16 | -68% |