Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54c3…ae71 world 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 330d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate35%29W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$3
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% +$3
politics 24% $0
other 16% −$1
sports 11% −$1
crypto 7% −$4
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +6.2% -3.9% 44% 11% -8.3%
≤30d 26 +1.7% -8.0% 42% 4% -9.1%
≤90d 71 +0.1% -9.4% 34% 3% -9.6%
all 82 +0.0% -9.5% 35% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

330d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses29 / 53
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)82 / 85
History coverage330d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-18%)
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-41%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $28 +$2 +9%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $72 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $137 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $26 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $34 $0 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $6 +$3 +46%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 10 $36 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $34 −$2 -5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $37 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $36 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $38 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $33 $0 +1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $106 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $33 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $33 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 28 $11 $0 +4%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 27 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $3 $0 -13%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 23 $37 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $33 $0 -1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $31 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 19 $33 −$1 -2%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $87 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 16 $16 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $2 $0 -5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $3 −$1 -33%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $71 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $34 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $116 −$1 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 21 $34 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 21 $35 $0 -1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $37 $0 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $80 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 11 $78 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $35 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 37¢ $30 14m
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $28 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $34 14h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $34 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $34 25h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $13 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $17 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 46h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $32 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $35 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $10 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $25 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $11 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $24 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $17 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $18 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 15¢ $5 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $13 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $14 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.19 · official $2.90 (match) · 321 history records