Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:25:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54c3…11c6
crypto · 54 markets active 5h ago
4.0score
+$29 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$29 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$90
Realized+$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses27 / 6
Open positions21
Markets (closed)33 / 54
History coverage598d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit81%
Chart Positions 21 History 33 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $24 $24 −$0 (-0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? No 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? No 100¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will Patrick Bailey win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? No 99¢ 99¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will App A be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? No 100¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO day? No 100¢ 100¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? No 99¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? No 100¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after April 2026 me Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 21°C on April 20? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $147 +$9 +6%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 30? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 30? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30? Apr 20 $1 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 06 $189 +$16 +8%
Will Sunderland win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? Jan 30 $1 $0 +0%
Meteora FDV above $500M one day after launch? Jan 30 $2 $0 +1%
Will Kick Sauber have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mex Jan 30 $3 $0 +0%
Will Haas have the highest constructor score at the 2025 F1 Mexican Gr Jan 30 $4 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $102K on September 5? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,500 and $113,000 on Septembe Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $4000 on September 5 at 4PM ET Oct 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 September 1–7? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $113,000 on September 6 at 1 Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin above $98K on September 8? Oct 24 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 September 1–7? Oct 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in September? Oct 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 03 $13 +$5 +36%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? Aug 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will another team win the Serie A? Aug 31 $18 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? Aug 31 $60 $0 +0%
Will Jumaane Williams win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Apr 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Apr 11 $103 +$1 +1%
Will someone else be inaugurated? Dec 13 $103 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris be inaugurated? Nov 27 $103 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Electi Oct 22 $103 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 68% +$25
crypto 12% $0
other 11% $0
sports 4% +$5
tech 3% −$1
weather 1% $0
world 1% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju BUY No 100¢ $4 4h
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? BUY No 99¢ $1 4h
Will Patrick Bailey win the 2026 NL Platinum Glove award? BUY No 99¢ $7 4h
Will Procreate Pocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will App A be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 4h
Will AnkiMobile Flashcards be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on BUY No 100¢ $2 4h
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 5h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be $600B or greater at market close on IPO BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $400B and $600B at market close BUY No 100¢ $5 5h
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5h
Will SpaceX fail to complete an initial public offering by December 31 BUY No 100¢ $6 5h
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026? BUY No 98¢ $1 5h
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $1 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? BUY Yes 98¢ $2 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $2 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $7 5h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $24 5h
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 52d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 52d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 52d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 52d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 52d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 52d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $10 52d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 52d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 4 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 9 -10.1% -18.7% 89% 0% -5.1%
all 33 -1.3% -10.7% 82% 3% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 3% -6.8%
10% -19.2% 3% -15.7%
15% -27.0% 3% -23.8%
20% -34.2% 0% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.21 · official $90.16 (match) · 346 history records