Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:15:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
54 0x54c4…f835 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$748 (+1%) realized +$749 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%26W / 107L
Whale WR3%big bets
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$976per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$635now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$7
14 days−$15
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$351
politics 36% −$55
sports 8% +$311
world 2% +$832
culture 2% −$2
economics 1% −$4
crypto 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 22 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 64 -0.1% -9.6% 5% 0% -9.6%
all 133 +1.5% -8.2% 20% 13% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 13% -9.0%
10% -17.0% 12% -17.7%
15% -25.0% 10% -25.7%
20% -32.3% 9% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 56% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 3% (≥$1,143) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$64 vs −$9 · ×7.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.78 per $1 lost it wins $1.78
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$635
Realized+$749
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses26 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)3%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage135d
Avg bet$976
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $636 $635 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 28 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 27 $2,756 −$3 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $1,450 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $502 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $4,262 −$5 -0%
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of Jun 14 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $1,139 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,141 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $1,853 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $956 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,547 −$3 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $903 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $1,039 −$1 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $1,070 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? Jun 03 $291 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $414 +$2 +0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $446 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $437 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $991 −$1 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $425 −$1 -0%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 24 $640 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 24 $643 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $4,652 −$5 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,157 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,187 −$2 -0%
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $1,197 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,059 −$2 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $1,143 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 05 $1,148 −$1 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $2,983 −$3 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 30 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 30 $1,002 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,116 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $2,893 −$3 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,047 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,140 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $1,858 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 19 $1,133 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $1,049 −$1 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,044 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $2,059 −$2 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $1,892 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $497 1h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $498 3h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $501 19h
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $501 22h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $499 23h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $500 25h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $495 6d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $496 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $500 7d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $501 7d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $502 8d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $502 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $501 9d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $502 9d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $636 11d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of SELL No 100¢ $708 13d
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $709 13d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,137 14d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,139 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,140 14d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,141 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,140 14d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,141 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,042 15d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,044 15d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,058 21d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,059 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $954 21d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $956 21d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $996 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $635.00 · official $635.00 (match) · 436 history records