Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
54 0x54c5…5f9e other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$238 (+84%) realized +$140 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$158now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$21
sports 40% +$294
crypto 7% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+61.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +78.7% +61.7% 56% 56% +71.1%
≤30d 9 +78.7% +61.7% 56% 56% +71.1%
≤90d 9 +78.7% +61.7% 56% 56% +71.1%
all 9 +78.7% +61.7% 56% 56% +71.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +61.7% 56% +71.1%
10% +46.2% 56% +54.7%
15% +32.1% 56% +39.8%
20% +19.1% 56% +26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +89% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +79% · $-wt +89% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$56 vs −$21 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.31 per $1 lost it wins $3.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$158
Realized+$140
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $20 $83 +$63 (+316%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 40¢ $20 $67 +$48 (+238%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 26¢ $20 $8 −$12 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $21 +$31 +149%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 +$18 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $50 +$77 +155%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$122 +570%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $21 +$31 +149%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 1h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 5h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 5h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 13h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $21 21h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $50 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $21 32h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 32h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $21 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $21 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $21 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $158.40 · official $158.40 (match) · 21 history records