Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:17:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54c6…e5c2
other · 450 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$114 +6%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$61
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$470
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$61
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses39 / 59
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions468
Markets (closed)98 / 450
History coverage5d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day754.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 468 History 98 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Josh Turek win the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary by between 20% and 30%? No 0¢ 2¢ $3 $16 +$14 (+539%)
Will the Bank of Korea hold at the August 2026 meeting? No 29¢ 54¢ $4 $8 +$4 (+86%)
Did a ground support equipment failure cause the Blue Origin New Glenn explosion? Yes 4¢ 33¢ $1 $6 +$6 (+736%)
Will Kobbie Mainoo win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $1 $6 +$6 (+865%)
Will Donald Trump dance on June 14, 2026? Yes 34¢ 43¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+28%)
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? Yes 23¢ 28¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+22%)
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $140 end of June? No 73¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will there be exactly 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+25%)
Will Yan Diomande win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 8¢ $2 $5 +$4 (+236%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Salah vs. Mane Salah 44¢ 57¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+28%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will Trump speak to Mark Rutte in June? No 32¢ 38¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+19%)
Will the median home value in the Austin, Texas metro area be less than $481,000 on June 30? No 70¢ 67¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will Pau Cubarsí win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 6¢ $1 $5 +$3 (+227%)
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $132 end of June? No 54¢ 63¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will Micron (MU) close above $1,000 end of June? No 65¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? No 35¢ 100¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+182%)
Will Meta (META) close above $580 end of June? No 64¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the median home value in New York City be between $599,000 and $606,000 on June 30? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+6%)
Will Palantir (PLTR) close above $134 end of June? No 60¢ 66¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting? No 37¢ 51¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+38%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of June? No 65¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q2 2026 be at least 4.5%? Yes 1¢ 22¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+2135%)
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 27m and 30m? Yes 40¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+152%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 7, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$7 +429%
Will "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2 Jun 12 $2 +$5 +293%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 8, 2026? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +116%
Will Donald Trump dance on June 5, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +810%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $17 +$2 +9%
Will Surf launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -18%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 12 $3 $0 +17%
Will Iván Cepeda win less than 30% of votes in the first round of the Jun 12 $0 $0 +3%
Israel and Syria normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +197%
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +29%
Will Josh Turek win the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary by 30% or more? Jun 12 $0 $0 -76%
Will Josh Turek win the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary by less than 10 Jun 12 $0 $0 -87%
Will Acción Popular (AP) win the most seats in the 2026 Peruvian Chamb Jun 12 $0 $0 +141%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $0 $0 +56%
Will Adam Sandler attend UFC Freedom 250? Jun 12 $0 $0 +6%
Will Jordan Clarkson record the highest scoring game of the 2026 NBA F Jun 12 $0 $0 -36%
Will Slingshot launch a token by September 30, 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 -8%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by June 30? Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will SpaceX IPO on June 23, 2026? Jun 12 $0 $0 -76%
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 -25%
Will Hong Wang win the 2026 Fields Medal? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +21%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 12 $1 $0 -7%
Will Afghanistan recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 12 $0 $0 +6275%
Will City Protocol launch a token by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 -27%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $0 $0 +131%
Will Claude go down 0-2 times in June? Jun 12 $0 $0 +1341%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to less than 20 years in prison? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +22%
Will Trump recognize Somaliland before 2027? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will Indonesia recognize Israel by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Will Davido perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 11 $0 $0 -63%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $11 $0 +3%
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30? Jun 11 $0 $0 +130%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026 Jun 11 $1 $0 +18%
Will Arda Güler win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 -15%
NBA Finals: Wemby to Break Single-Game Finals Blocks Record? Jun 11 $4 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 14, 2026? Jun 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 202 Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 11, 2026? Jun 11 $23 $0 -2%
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30? Jun 11 $1 $0 -12%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 11 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by June 30? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +56%
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -25%
Will Cambria launch a token by June 30, 2027? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -39%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $3 $0 -14%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 11 $1 $0 -21%
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 53 Senate seats after the 2026 Jun 11 $1 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 51% +$8
world 23% +$17
politics 12% +$14
tech 8% +$8
sports 4% +$1
economics 2% +$5
crypto 0% +$2
finance 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mistral have a #1 AI model by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 12m
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 16m
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J SELL Yes 19¢ $1 24m
Will Shakira perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? SELL No 4¢ $0 25m
Will Travis Scott attend UFC Freedom 250? SELL No 63¢ $0 34m
Will Travis Scott attend UFC Freedom 250? SELL No 63¢ $4 34m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 37m
Will the United States send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by J BUY Yes 19¢ $5 52m
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 56m
Will Russia enter Stinky by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $2 58m
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 1h
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an SELL Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Will Adanech Abiebie be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 34¢ $4 1h
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by between 3% an SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Morgan Stanley fail by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will Citigroup fail by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $0 1h
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 1h
Will Israel strike 9 countries in 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+42.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 98 +57.8% +42.8% 40% 29% -7.6%
≤30d 98 +57.8% +42.8% 40% 29% -7.6%
≤90d 98 +57.8% +42.8% 40% 29% -7.6%
all 98 +57.8% +42.8% 40% 29% -7.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover754.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +42.8% 29% -7.6%
10% ← realistic here +29.1% 23% -16.5%
15% +16.7% 18% -24.5%
20% +5.2% 16% -31.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $469.81 · official $457.84 · 3500 history records