Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:28:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54c6…fcc9 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL +$150 (+15%) realized +$87 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown67%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$99
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$48
other 41% +$60
crypto 2% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 40% +5.6%
≤30d 20 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 40% +5.6%
≤90d 20 +1.9% -7.8% 40% 40% +5.6%
all 50 -7.2% -16.0% 42% 42% -1.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 42% -1.4%
10% -24.1% 40% -10.8%
15% -31.4% 38% -19.4%
20% -38.1% 32% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$87
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)50 / 53
History coverage126d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown67%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-02-11? Yes 38¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Speed Skating - Men's 1000m at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics? No 18¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Timberwolves 2¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-02-08? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5 Under 48¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? No 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $10 −$1 -11%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 −$22 -43%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $152 −$33 -22%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $10 +$17 +165%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$25 +48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $51 +$53 +105%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$36 +71%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $20 +$34 +166%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$31 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Bolivia vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $9 +$8 +97%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $30 +$13 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$1 -6%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Nigeria O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Bolivia vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 $0 -9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $8 −$8 -98%
Bucks vs. Thunder Feb 13 $68 −$57 -84%
Will Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Feb 12 $53 +$14 +26%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-02-12? Feb 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Hawks vs. Hornets Feb 12 $61 +$33 +54%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 12 $20 +$21 +106%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-02-11? Feb 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan Stolz (USA) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: S Feb 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Feb 10 $7 +$20 +282%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $15 −$15 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score Feb 10 $24 +$19 +78%
Qatar Total Open: Emma Navarro vs Anna Kalinskaya Feb 10 $9 +$6 +66%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $10 +$15 +153%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-02-09? Feb 09 $10 +$8 +84%
Will Jutta Leerdam (NED) win the gold medal for Winter Olympics 2026: Feb 09 $5 +$3 +51%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 09 $7 −$2 -30%
Will I Like It be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $1 +$1 +113%
Will Kenneth Walker III win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $2 +$2 +77%
Will Crypto.com run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will DÁKITI be played at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $1 +$1 +112%
Will "BAILE INOLVIDABLE" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bad Bunny say "Fuck ICE" at the Big Game? Feb 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bad Bunny wears a dress or skirt at the Big Game? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will "DtMF" be played last at the Super Bowl halftime show? Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Clippers vs. Timberwolves Feb 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Real Betis Balompié end in a draw? Feb 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Feb 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-02-08? Feb 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $25 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 1h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 1h
Sweden to score first vs. Tunisia? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $29 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 35¢ $31 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 54¢ $87 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $20 4h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $75 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $30 24h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $10 25h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 25h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $104 25h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 26h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 85¢ $54 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $101 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $3 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $71 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.11 · official $53.55 · 112 history records