Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54c7…e764 other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 113d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-2%) realized +$22 · open −$30
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$21
14 days+$30
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% +$10
sports 6% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-47.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -25.3% -32.4% 33% 33% +21.3%
≤30d 9 -33.8% -40.1% 33% 33% +3.6%
≤90d 12 -42.0% -47.5% 25% 25% -1.9%
all 12 -42.0% -47.5% 25% 25% -1.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.5% 25% -1.9%
10% -52.6% 25% -11.3%
15% -57.1% 25% -19.9%
20% -61.3% 17% -27.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$7 · ×3.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

113d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)12 / 14
History coverage113d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $41 +$30 +73%
Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals Jun 28 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $5 +$4 +79%
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? Jun 22 $5 $0 -4%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$48 +48%
Enhanced Games: Mitchell Hooper Heaviest Deadlift Over 500 Kg? May 25 $20 $0 -0%
Enhanced Games: Hafthor Bjornsson Heaviest Deadlift Over 510 Kg? May 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Enhanced Games: Fred Kerley 100m Sprint Time Under 9.76? May 24 $5 −$5 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $90.23 · official $90.23 (match) · 131 history records