Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:15:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54c8…3b7e crypto 1019 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$552 (-2%) realized −$552 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate67%681W / 338L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$329
14 days−$303
30 days−$371
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% −$549
other 3% −$89
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-16.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +0.7% -8.9% 97% 1% -11.6%
≤30d 803 -11.2% -19.7% 70% 21% -10.7%
≤90d 1019 -7.4% -16.2% 67% 26% -11.2%
all 1019 -7.4% -16.2% 67% 26% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.2% 26% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.3% 26% -19.7%
15% -31.6% 23% -27.5%
20% -38.3% 20% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$552
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses681 / 338
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1019 / 1019
History coverage59d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1019 Trades
no open positions (316 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET Jun 15 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET Jun 14 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET Jun 14 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET Jun 14 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET Jun 14 $94 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET Jun 13 $94 +$1 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET Jun 13 $396 −$396 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET Jun 13 $396 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET Jun 13 $393 +$7 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $294 +$6 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET Jun 13 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET Jun 13 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET Jun 13 $296 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET Jun 13 $292 +$8 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6PM ET Jun 12 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5PM ET Jun 12 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 4PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3PM ET Jun 12 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2PM ET Jun 12 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 7AM ET Jun 12 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8PM ET Jun 12 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11AM ET Jun 11 $297 +$3 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9AM ET Jun 11 $294 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $295 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7AM ET Jun 11 $188 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5AM ET Jun 11 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $300 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6PM ET Jun 10 $299 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $297 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2PM ET Jun 10 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10AM ET Jun 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $49 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $46 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $99 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $95 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $94 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $94 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $94 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $28 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $66 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $94 46h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $373 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $270 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $84 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $42 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $393 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $294 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 5AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $294 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $296 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $297 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $292 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1981 history records