Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54c8…0267 sports 190 markets active 0h ago coverage 518d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$354 (-2%) realized −$207 · open −$147
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate47%89W / 99L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$108per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$68
7 days−$16
14 days+$60
30 days+$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$974
world 8% +$167
crypto 8% +$46
other 2% +$200
politics 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +10.6% +0.1% 43% 43% -11.8%
≤30d 56 +0.8% -8.8% 43% 43% -4.4%
≤90d 71 +27.5% +15.4% 44% 44% -8.3%
all 188 +5.1% -4.9% 47% 37% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 37% -11.9%
10% -14.0% 35% -20.3%
15% -22.3% 32% -28.0%
20% -30.0% 30% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$75 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

518d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized−$207
Unrealized−$147
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses89 / 99
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions2
Markets (closed)188 / 190
History coverage518d
Avg bet$108
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 39¢ 48¢ $220 $266 +$46 (+21%)
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 33¢ 0¢ $194 $0 −$194 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 87 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $31 +$63 +206%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $31 +$55 +180%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $101 +$77 +76%
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 18 $10 +$24 +238%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $121 −$119 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $95 +$79 +83%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $91 −$40 -44%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $20 +$34 +165%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$18 +180%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $88 +$54 +61%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $20 −$1 -6%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $7 −$7 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 −$5 -58%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $15 −$2 -14%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $107 −$105 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $5 +$2 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $57 −$56 -98%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $82 +$96 +116%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $11 +$13 +119%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 +$53 +105%
Map Handicap: paiN (-1.5) vs FlyQuest (+1.5) Jun 07 $5 +$11 +206%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 +$40 +79%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 07 $11 −$11 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $15 +$5 +32%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 +$7 +146%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $25 +$28 +111%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $10 +$12 +119%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs 9z (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $19 +$25 +129%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GamerLegion (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs MIBR (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$17 +165%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 +$8 +74%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 06 $34 −$33 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $51 +$46 +91%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $20 −$2 -9%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $12 −$12 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $20 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 40¢ $204 28m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 11¢ $10 35m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 36¢ $102 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 38¢ $43 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 32¢ $31 24h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 46¢ $51 29h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $31 30h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 32¢ $51 2d
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY FURIA 46¢ $51 2d
Map Handicap: AUR (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Aurora Gaming 29¢ $10 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 27¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 29¢ $5 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $111 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 49¢ $25 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 4¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 50¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $40 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 54¢ $95 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Team Falcons 66¢ $73 6d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $51 6d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 22¢ $3 6d
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) BUY 9z 37¢ $20 7d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner BUY Monte 35¢ $10 8d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 53¢ $0 8d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 53¢ $19 8d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 55¢ $20 8d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner BUY Monte 8¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $266.69 · official $266.58 (match) · 442 history records