Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
54 0x54ca…5e9b world 92 markets active 1h ago coverage 454d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$23 (+0%) realized +$23 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate41%37W / 54L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$7
14 days+$12
30 days+$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 78% +$28
other 21% −$6
politics 1% +$1
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.1% -10.5% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 35 -0.5% -10.0% 34% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 44 -0.4% -9.9% 34% 0% -9.3%
all 91 -1.1% -10.5% 41% 1% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 1% -9.4%
10% -19.1% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.72 per $1 lost it wins $1.72
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

454d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$23
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses37 / 54
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage454d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 88¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 24 $55 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 24 $152 +$3 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $3 −$1 -18%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $183 −$4 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 21 $67 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $183 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $190 +$2 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $307 −$4 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $192 +$10 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $1,376 −$1 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $165 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $172 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $176 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $331 +$3 +1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 15 $174 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $267 +$4 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $188 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $380 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $168 +$4 +2%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $169 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $97 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $363 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $859 +$1 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $107 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $524 +$14 +3%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 04 $152 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $143 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $164 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 01 $339 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $153 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $152 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $319 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $166 +$2 +1%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $6 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $127 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $223 −$13 -6%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $1,091 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 13 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 12 $1,375 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 30 $69 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 12 $13 $0 +1%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 16 $18 $0 +0%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-12-20? Dec 15 $9 $0 +0%
Eagles vs. Commanders Dec 15 $9 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 12 $6 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $55 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $55 5h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 49¢ $155 6h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 48¢ $152 9h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 33h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL No 90¢ $179 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY No 92¢ $183 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $12 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $35 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $66 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 83¢ $117 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $132 3d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 83¢ $51 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $183 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $117 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $65 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $181 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $84 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $100 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.83 · official $0.00 (match) · 434 history records