trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | No | 67¢ | 88¢ | $42,688 | $55,805 | +$13,116 (+31%) |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? | Yes | 42¢ | 88¢ | $5,385 | $11,297 | +$5,912 (+110%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? | Yes | 28¢ | 17¢ | $1,688 | $1,006 | −$682 (-40%) |
| Will Neymar play in the World Cup? | No | 16¢ | 8¢ | $948 | $510 | −$438 (-46%) |
| Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by June 30? | Yes | 8¢ | 8¢ | $141 | $156 | +$15 (+11%) |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Yes | 2¢ | 0¢ | $362 | $0 | −$362 (-100%) |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | Yes | 58¢ | 0¢ | $1,694 | $0 | −$1,694 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 | Jun 11 | $2,571 | +$1,960 | +76% |
| Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners | Jun 11 | $1,546 | +$1,385 | +90% |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9? | Jun 09 | $362 | −$362 | -100% |
| Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect | Jun 08 | $2,233 | −$200 | -9% |
| Spread: Scotland (-1.5) | Jun 08 | $1,356 | −$54 | -4% |
| Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | Jun 08 | $9,206 | +$10,650 | +116% |
| Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian | Jun 08 | $1,638 | +$7,405 | +452% |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | May 23 | $1,694 | −$1,694 | -100% |
| Spread: Avalanche (-1.5) | May 22 | $3,307 | −$128 | -4% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31? | Apr 19 | $2,494 | −$2,494 | -100% |
| Spread: Knicks (-14.5) | Apr 03 | $265 | +$229 | +86% |
| Spread: Timberwolves (-7.5) | Mar 31 | $900 | −$27 | -3% |
| Kawhi Leonard: Rebounds O/U 7.5 | Mar 26 | $15 | −$15 | -100% |
| George Washington Revolutionaries vs. Utah Valley Wolverines | Mar 19 | $940 | +$1,051 | +112% |
| Murray State Racers vs. Nevada Wolf Pack | Mar 19 | $200 | −$200 | -100% |
| Kent State Golden Flashes vs. Illinois State Redbirds | Mar 19 | $720 | −$720 | -100% |
| Will "NUEVAYOL" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Mar 18 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will USA win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? | Mar 18 | $2,312 | −$2,312 | -100% |
| Will "DtMF" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show? | Mar 18 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran first? | Mar 16 | $660 | −$110 | -17% |
| Will Travis Scott perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? | Mar 02 | $10,031 | +$5,147 | +51% |
| Will Anthony Joshua win his boxing match against Jake Paul? | Dec 20 | $36,145 | +$5,401 | +15% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 7 | +88.7% | +70.7% | 57% | 57% | +89.9% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +57.4% | +42.4% | 44% | 44% | +62.2% |
| ≤90d | 20 | -0.2% | -9.7% | 30% | 30% | +30.5% |
| all | 22 | +2.8% | -7.0% | 36% | 36% | +19.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -7.0% | 36% | +19.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -15.9% | 32% | +7.7% |
| 15% | -24.0% | 32% | -2.7% |
| 20% | -31.5% | 32% | -12.2% |