Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54ce…f60b crypto 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-9%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -53% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$63
sports 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-57.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -52.8% -57.3% 25% 25% -50.0%
≤30d 12 -52.8% -57.3% 25% 25% -50.0%
≤90d 12 -52.8% -57.3% 25% 25% -50.0%
all 12 -52.8% -57.3% 25% 25% -50.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -57.3% 25% -50.0%
10% -61.4% 25% -54.8%
15% -65.1% 25% -59.2%
20% -68.6% 25% -63.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -53% · $-wt -45% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$11 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francisco Comesana vs Alejandro Moro Can Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 18 history records