Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:45:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54d0…8e20 sports 742 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$66,107 (-26%) realized −$66,107 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%394W / 348L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Fees−$2,344est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$257
7 days+$685
14 days−$1,793
30 days−$5,720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$65,989
other 10% −$2,163
crypto 0% +$279
finance 0% −$56
world 0% +$3
weather 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +8.8% -1.6% 69% 66% +5.2%
≤30d 450 -7.7% -16.4% 55% 48% -19.3%
≤90d 722 -8.5% -17.2% 53% 48% -40.9%
all 742 -7.7% -16.5% 53% 48% -33.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 48% -33.2%
10% -24.5% 40% -39.6%
15% -31.8% 31% -45.4%
20% -38.5% 21% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -35% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$119 vs −$330 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$66,107
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses394 / 348
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$2,344
Open positions0
Markets (closed)742 / 742
History coverage130d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 742 Trades
no open positions (75 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$21 +20%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 21 $152 +$79 +52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$13 +25%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$43 +84%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $506 +$285 +56%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$16 +79%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Se Jun 20 $101 +$67 +66%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 20 $203 −$178 -88%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$253 +50%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 19 $304 +$223 +73%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$58 +58%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $152 −$150 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $20 +$8 +41%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $507 +$231 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 −$120 -59%
HSBC Championships: Jakub Mensik vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 16 $20 +$8 +39%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $20 +$12 +60%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $41 +$2 +5%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $51 +$13 +26%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $507 +$244 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 +$52 +103%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +88%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $101 +$31 +31%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $303 +$105 +35%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$5 +27%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 12.5 Jun 14 $20 −$5 -27%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $254 −$179 -70%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 −$12 -23%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $20 −$15 -74%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $507 +$328 +65%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $50 +$4 +8%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $20 −$18 -89%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $101 −$88 -87%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Anna Blinkova vs Anna Bondar Jun 14 $10 +$5 +48%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 +$6 +16%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $304 −$260 -86%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $71 −$40 -56%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $101 −$93 -91%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Yankees vs. Jun 13 $101 +$77 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Cabo Verde 70¢ $122 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 57¢ $101 2h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees SELL Cincinnati Reds 76¢ $231 5h
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees BUY Cincinnati Reds 49¢ $152 7h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 49¢ $102 8h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $63 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 70¢ $94 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $51 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $791 31h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $506 31h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 55¢ $20 45h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Se SELL No 100¢ $168 46h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Se BUY No 59¢ $101 46h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 11¢ $22 47h
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. BUY No 62¢ $51 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 53¢ $203 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $759 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs SELL Chicago Cubs 95¢ $527 2d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $304 2d
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. BUY No 60¢ $202 2d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 56¢ $51 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 82¢ $160 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $101 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $152 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks SELL Los Angeles Angels 75¢ $29 4d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 52¢ $20 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 83¢ $737 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1731 history records