Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:28:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54d1…d55a
other · 28 markets active 4h ago
9.0score
+$104 +66%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$104 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses14 / 1
Open positions13
Markets (closed)15 / 28
History coverage136d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit46%
Chart Positions 13 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $11 +$2 +17%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Apr 10 $1 $0 +1%
Red Wings vs. Predators Mar 03 $110 +$102 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 660-679 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 26 $1 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 70% +$102
politics 14% +$2
other 10% $0
economics 3% $0
tech 3% $0
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1 4h
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $1 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1 4h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +16.7% +5.6% 100% 100% +5.6%
≤90d 13 +1.5% -8.2% 92% 8% -4.4%
all 15 +7.5% -2.7% 93% 13% +55.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 13% +55.4%
10% -12.0% 7% +40.5%
15% -20.5% 7% +26.9%
20% -28.3% 7% +14.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.02 · official $13.02 (match) · 118 history records