Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:04:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54d1…13f4
sports · 1068 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$5,313 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,104 · open −$253
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$27,781
Realized+$5,104
Unrealized−$253
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses442 / 347
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$1,236
Open positions231
Markets (closed)789 / 1068
History coverage15d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day195.4
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit86%
Chart Positions 231 History 789 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,029
7 days+$477
14 days+$5,877
30 days+$5,104
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $527 $524 −$3 (-1%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 96¢ $450 $494 +$44 (+10%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score No 67¢ 69¢ $450 $467 +$17 (+4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 67¢ 68¢ $411 $414 +$3 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? No 84¢ 84¢ $389 $389 −$1 (-0%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $380 $384 +$4 (+1%)
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 78¢ $383 $376 −$7 (-2%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $339 $368 +$29 (+9%)
Will Turkiye reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 54¢ 74¢ $264 $359 +$96 (+36%)
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 83¢ 81¢ $361 $357 −$5 (-1%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 80¢ $355 $355 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $356 $352 −$4 (-1%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 66¢ $412 $349 −$63 (-15%)
Will Norway advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $347 $345 −$2 (-1%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 68¢ 68¢ $346 $343 −$3 (-1%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? No 86¢ 86¢ $335 $333 −$2 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 72¢ $324 $319 −$5 (-1%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 70¢ $360 $317 −$43 (-12%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? No 82¢ 81¢ $317 $316 −$1 (-0%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $314 $309 −$5 (-2%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 44¢ 54¢ $251 $305 +$54 (+22%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 50¢ 64¢ $236 $301 +$65 (+28%)
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $288 $299 +$11 (+4%)
Will Panama advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 62¢ $306 $290 −$16 (-5%)
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Yes 31¢ 92¢ $98 $290 +$193 (+197%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Jun 14 $192 −$192 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs: 1H O/U 106.5 Jun 14 $157 −$157 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 14 $159 −$159 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 14 $272 −$272 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Evo Morales arrested by May 31? Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Snigur vs Stearns Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $82 −$82 -100%
Map Handicap: NIP (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) Jun 14 $161 −$161 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 14 $133 −$133 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $70 −$70 -100%
Joao Fonseca vs. Dino Prizmic: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 14 $77 −$77 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $146 −$146 -100%
Set Handicap: Djokovic (-1.5) vs Royer (+1.5) Jun 14 $71 −$71 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Thiago Agustin Tiran Jun 14 $141 −$141 -100%
Little Rock: Michael Mmoh vs Timo Legout Jun 14 $78 −$78 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026? Jun 14 $57 −$57 -100%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challenge Jun 14 $107 −$107 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif Jun 14 $147 −$147 -100%
Will "The Breadwinner" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 6m and 7m Jun 14 $124 −$124 -100%
Tirante vs. Busta: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 14 $166 −$166 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $581 −$30 -5%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $320 +$133 +42%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $173 +$107 +62%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1,496 +$69 +5%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $78 +$23 +30%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 14 $19 +$18 +93%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $146 +$166 +114%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 218.5 Jun 14 $109 +$87 +79%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $253 +$10 +4%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $67 −$55 -82%
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-2.5) Jun 14 $25 +$22 +90%
Will CD Ñublense win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$17 +86%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $355 +$67 +19%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $204 −$63 -31%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 +$7 +47%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $8 +$49 +596%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $70 +$9 +13%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $287 −$25 -9%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $75 +$14 +18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $221 +$61 +27%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $198 −$145 -73%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $43 +$58 +134%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $230 +$82 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 66% +$7,843
other 20% +$170
world 10% −$59
politics 3% −$32
finance 1% +$30
crypto 0% −$1
culture 0% −$3
tech 0% −$74
economics 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $23 6m
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Alexander Shevchenko 46¢ $29 15m
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? BUY Yes 45¢ $14 16m
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 16m
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? BUY Yes 45¢ $44 16m
Will Gold (GC) settle at $3,800-$4,200 in June? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 16m
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 32¢ $16 27m
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel BUY Taro Daniel 39¢ $10 39m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $1 54m
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $16 55m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $30 59m
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 30¢ $18 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 57¢ $26 1h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 46¢ $88 1h
Halle Open, Qualification: Lorenzo Sonego vs Nikoloz Basilashvili BUY Nikoloz Basilashvili 36¢ $8 1h
Game Handicap: LY (-1.5) vs Team Liquid (+1.5) BUY Team Liquid 64¢ $71 1h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Liquid 47¢ $47 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 47¢ $9 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY Lotte Giants 34¢ $1 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY Lotte Giants 34¢ $28 1h
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions BUY SSG Landers 43¢ $80 1h
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. LG Twins BUY Lotte Giants 34¢ $5 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? BUY No 35¢ $30 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 34¢ $7 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 46¢ $10 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 46¢ $9 2h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 46¢ $46 2h
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June? BUY Yes 46¢ $15 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $134 2h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $145 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 420 +9.7% -0.7% 57% 54% -8.5%
≤30d 789 +8.5% -1.8% 56% 52% -4.7%
≤90d 789 +8.5% -1.8% 56% 52% -4.7%
all 789 +8.5% -1.8% 56% 52% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover195.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.8% 52% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -11.2% 45% -13.8%
15% -19.8% 38% -22.2%
20% -27.7% 31% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27,781.26 · official $27,779.54 (match) · 3500 history records