Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:19:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
54 0x54d2…0dbf other 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 432d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$6,910 (+49%) realized +$6,904 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate80%12W / 3L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$748per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,752
7 days−$1,752
14 days−$1,752
30 days−$1,752
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$7,328
other 28% −$431
world 0% +$3
politics 0% +$7
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -47.0% -52.1% 50% 0% -53.0%
≤30d 3 -31.3% -37.9% 67% 0% -52.8%
≤90d 4 -20.1% -27.7% 75% 25% -52.5%
all 15 +14.9% +4.0% 80% 47% +34.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.0% 47% +34.7%
10% -6.0% 33% +21.8%
15% -15.0% 33% +10.0%
20% -23.4% 33% -0.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -48% too few recent
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$830 vs −$1,021 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

432d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized+$6,904
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses12 / 3
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions4
Markets (closed)15 / 19
History coverage432d
Avg bet$748
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 95¢ 99¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+4%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $16 $17 +$1 (+9%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 3¢ 16¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+366%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $1,859 −$1,859 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,787 +$107 +6%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? May 29 $19 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? Apr 30 $17 +$2 +14%
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Mar 03 $16 +$1 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 15 $15 +$1 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Dec 31 $5 $0 +9%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 31 $9 +$1 +12%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 18 $2,483 +$2,690 +108%
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Oct 17 $3,817 +$4,666 +122%
Dodgers vs. Brewers Oct 15 $1,985 +$1,832 +92%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? Jul 28 $693 −$693 -100%
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? Apr 16 $374 +$319 +85%
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-14? Apr 15 $509 −$509 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? Apr 13 $539 +$345 +64%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $42 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $1,859 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,787 2d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3d
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 95¢ $19 18d
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $19 46d
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? BUY No 88¢ $17 105d
Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 120d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $15 167d
Blue Jays vs. Mariners BUY Mariners 48¢ $2,483 241d
Blue Jays vs. Mariners BUY Blue Jays 45¢ $3,817 243d
Dodgers vs. Brewers BUY Dodgers 52¢ $257 244d
Dodgers vs. Brewers BUY Dodgers 52¢ $1,728 244d
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 245d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 245d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 245d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? BUY Yes 89¢ $9 245d
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-04-16? BUY Yes 54¢ $693 425d
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? BUY No 54¢ $352 426d
Will Paris Saint Germain win on 2025-04-15? BUY No 54¢ $23 426d
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-14? BUY No 57¢ $297 427d
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-14? BUY No 54¢ $4 427d
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-14? BUY No 54¢ $1 427d
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-14? BUY No 54¢ $196 427d
Will Bournemouth win on 2025-04-14? BUY No 54¢ $12 427d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? BUY No 61¢ $273 431d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? BUY No 61¢ $3 431d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? BUY No 61¢ $5 431d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? BUY No 61¢ $2 431d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-04-10? BUY No 61¢ $162 431d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.15 · official $83.17 (match) · 57 history records