Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
54 0x54d3…4d37 sports 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1,080 (+14%) realized +$1,062 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%11W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day6.4pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$818now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$915
other 42% +$1,045
crypto 4% +$181
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -3.7% -12.9% 58% 58% -3.5%
≤30d 19 -3.7% -12.9% 58% 58% -3.5%
≤90d 19 -3.7% -12.9% 58% 58% -3.5%
all 19 -3.7% -12.9% 58% 58% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 58% -3.5%
10% -21.2% 53% -12.8%
15% -28.8% 53% -21.2%
20% -35.8% 37% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 32% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$236 vs −$288 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$818
Realized+$1,062
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses11 / 8
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions3
Markets (closed)19 / 22
History coverage5d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day6.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Over 32¢ 30¢ $400 $381 −$19 (-5%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $100 $139 +$39 (+39%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $304 +$241 +79%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $406 +$363 +89%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $204 −$108 -53%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $910 −$900 -99%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 21 $303 −$303 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $404 +$193 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $909 +$442 +49%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $407 −$392 -96%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $203 +$142 +70%
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? Jun 20 $202 +$115 +57%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $406 +$394 +97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $156 +$96 +61%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 −$203 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $401 +$48 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $304 +$213 +70%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $202 −$200 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $707 +$353 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $303 39m
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $408 40m
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $545 41m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $768 41m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 19¢ $96 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 61¢ $405 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 63¢ $506 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $204 3h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $304 3h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $406 3h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $404 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,351 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 2¢ $8 20h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $202 23h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $407 23h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? SELL Yes 100¢ $317 23h
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $505 23h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 60¢ $55 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $406 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $101 25h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 33h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 33h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 33h
Netherlands to score first vs. Sweden? BUY Yes 63¢ $202 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $401 45h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $304 45h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $202 2d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $817.81 · official $817.86 (match) · 44 history records