Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54d5…3e85 other 135 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$45 (-0%) realized −$45 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate16%21W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$14
14 days−$22
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$21
other 23% −$15
sports 15% −$7
crypto 8% +$1
world 6% −$3
economics 5% −$3
tech 3% −$2
culture 3% −$2
finance 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -0.7% -10.2% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 58 -0.7% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 113 -0.7% -10.2% 13% 0% -9.9%
all 134 -0.6% -10.1% 16% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$45
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses21 / 113
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)134 / 135
History coverage102d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 20 $49 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 20 $167 −$1 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $350 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 19 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? Jun 19 $46 −$2 -3%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $143 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $98 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $193 −$2 -1%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $55 $0 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $101 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 17 $147 −$1 -1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $151 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $24 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $57 −$1 -2%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $41 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $144 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 14 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $247 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $133 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $47 −$1 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $58 $0 -1%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $41 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $108 −$1 -1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $206 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $213 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 10 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $58 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 09 $39 $0 -1%
Will Pete Buttigieg be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $7 $0 -5%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 09 $47 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 07 $57 −$1 -2%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $50 −$1 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 06 $92 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $42 −$1 -2%
Will Germany advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 06 $59 $0 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $186 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 05 $51 −$1 -2%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $53 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $58 $0 -0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $43 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 03 $59 −$2 -3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $195 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $45 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $232 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $429 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $45 1h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $49 2h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $49 10h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $54 10h
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 96¢ $54 15h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $43 16h
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $43 24h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 97¢ $49 25h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl BUY No 97¢ $49 29h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? SELL No 93¢ $45 29h
Will the Minnesota Wild be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion? BUY No 96¢ $46 35h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $51 36h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 42h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 42h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $49 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $54 2d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $55 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $44 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 97¢ $51 3d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $42 3d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $56 3d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $56 4d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $52 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.24 · official $45.24 (match) · 499 history records