Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:46:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54d7…37c4
other · 8 markets active 2h ago
2.0score
+$20 +31%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$28 · open −$8
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$28
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses1 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage157d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Yes 53¢ 10¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-82%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes Canadiens 30¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10PM ET Up 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 27 $5 +$78 +1568%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Mar 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? Jan 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? Jan 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10PM ET Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 31% −$20
other 29% −$17
crypto 17% −$11
tech 15% +$73
world 8% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 1h
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 30¢ $20 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $83 77d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $9 77d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 127d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $5 139d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 156d
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in January? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 156d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+115.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 3 +456.0% +403.0% 33% 33% +121.9%
all 7 +138.3% +115.6% 14% 14% +37.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +115.6% 14% +37.2%
10% +95.0% 14% +24.1%
15% +76.1% 14% +12.1%
20% +58.9% 14% +1.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.79 · official $1.79 (match) · 9 history records