Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54da…1fac sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ bot/MM pace (121 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$117per market
Trades / day121.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% −$24
other 21% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -12.1% -20.5% 50% 0% -11.9%
≤30d 8 -12.1% -20.5% 50% 0% -11.9%
≤90d 8 -12.1% -20.5% 50% 0% -11.9%
all 8 -12.1% -20.5% 50% 0% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover121.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.5% 0% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -28.1% 0% -20.4%
15% -35.0% 0% -28.1%
20% -41.4% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$8 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$117
Trades / day121.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $85 −$5 -6%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 17 $90 +$5 +6%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $528 −$21 -4%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $25 $0 +2%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $174 −$1 -1%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$1 +5%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Croatia 99¢ $26 32m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 95¢ $6 33m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 95¢ $19 33m
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Croatia 94¢ $34 33m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 86¢ $25 37m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 86¢ $5 37m
Spread: England (-2.5) SELL Croatia 85¢ $25 38m
Spread: England (-2.5) BUY Croatia 81¢ $25 38m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 91¢ $25 41m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 90¢ $1 41m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 90¢ $24 41m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $76 42m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 81¢ $23 44m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 84¢ $25 44m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 83¢ $22 44m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 77¢ $10 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 79¢ $42 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 76¢ $16 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 76¢ $9 45m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 74¢ $25 46m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 73¢ $26 47m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 28¢ $0 47m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 28¢ $15 47m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 30¢ $5 47m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 71¢ $19 47m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 71¢ $6 47m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 31¢ $23 47m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 72¢ $1 48m
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL Croatia 72¢ $23 48m
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 72¢ $24 48m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 122 history records