Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T13:08:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

54 0x54dc…bd51 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$126 (+48%) realized +$125 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +131% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +109% what you keep after slip

Net edge+109%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%2W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$88per market

Trades / day0.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 14d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+108.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+96.8%	+78.1%	100%	100%	+78.1%
≤30d	2	+130.8%	+108.8%	100%	100%	+95.0%
≤90d	2	+130.8%	+108.8%	100%	100%	+95.0%
all	2	+130.8%	+108.8%	100%	100%	+95.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.5 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+108.8%	100%	+95.0%
10%	+88.8%	100%	+76.3%
15%	+70.6%	100%	+59.3%
20%	+53.9%	100%	+43.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 61% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +116% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +131% · $-wt +116% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$63 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage

Net worth$155

Realized+$125

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses2 / 0

Open positions1

Markets (closed)2 / 3

History coverage14d

Avg bet$88

Trades / day0.5

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 2 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	No	83¢	84¢	$154	$155	+$1 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Jun 19	$79	+$76	+97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	Jun 12	$30	+$49	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24?	BUY No	83¢	$155	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	SELL Yes	100¢	$155	5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	BUY Yes	50¢	$79	9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$3	12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	SELL Yes	100¢	$76	12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$20	12d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11?	BUY Yes	37¢	$10	13d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $155.12 · official $155.12 (match) · 7 history records