Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

54
0x54e0…b02c
sports · 387 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$2,833 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,656 · open −$488
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1,122
Realized−$3,656
Unrealized−$488
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses131 / 237
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$545
Open positions19
Markets (closed)368 / 387
History coverage8d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day389.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 19 History 368 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,740
7 days−$3,621
14 days−$3,656
30 days−$3,656
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Bilibili Gaming 38¢ 100¢ $130 $342 +$212 (+163%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner HOTU 22¢ 100¢ $66 $295 +$229 (+348%)
Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs KOLESIE (+1.5) HOTU 25¢ 100¢ $54 $218 +$164 (+306%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 39¢ 100¢ $27 $68 +$42 (+156%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner TheMongolz 34¢ 100¢ $23 $66 +$44 (+194%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner MOUZ 46¢ 100¢ $11 $24 +$13 (+115%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on June 14? No 91¢ 100¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 15? No 84¢ 90¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on June 14? No 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 15? No 97¢ 95¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Top Esports (+2.5) Bilibili Gaming 29¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+245%)
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Under 45¢ 100¢ $1 $3 +$2 (+122%)
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner FUT Esports 24¢ 0¢ $321 $1 −$320 (-100%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Top Esports 38¢ 0¢ $215 $0 −$214 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Monte 27¢ 0¢ $57 $0 −$57 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 9¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-99%)
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner KOLESIE 36¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Over 36¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -66%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $94 +$177 +188%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: VENOM ESPOR vs WRAITH PCIFIC - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$14 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +114%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $233 +$119 +51%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Detonate vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $289 +$192 +66%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $12 −$12 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs XLG Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +8%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: SLY (-2.5) vs G2 NORD (+2.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $98 +$104 +106%
Map Handicap: LGC (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) Jun 13 $48 +$104 +216%
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $54 −$54 -100%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $12 −$3 -23%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $9 +$25 +262%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $390 +$15 +4%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $111 +$105 +95%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $16 −$9 -54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $203 +$508 +250%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $835 +$917 +110%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $132 −$132 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $3 +$10 +276%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs aimclub - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Atputies vs Noir Verse (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: RUSTEC vs HEROIC Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$2 -42%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $252 +$309 +123%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $178 −$169 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 98% −$4,151
weather 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 12¢ $1 26m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 12¢ $1 26m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $1 26m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 24¢ $2 26m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $2 28m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 28¢ $2 28m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 33m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 15¢ $1 33m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 7¢ $5 33m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 8¢ $1 33m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 7¢ $1 35m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 36m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 18¢ $1 37m
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 11¢ $1 38m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 13¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 13¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 13¢ $1 42m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 13¢ $2 42m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 16¢ $1 45m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $2 45m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 17¢ $2 45m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $3 45m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $5 45m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $2 45m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $3 45m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 18¢ $1 45m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $9 45m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $1 45m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $4 45m
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 21¢ $4 45m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 354 -9.2% -17.9% 35% 22% -21.6%
≤30d 368 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 23% -22.6%
≤90d 368 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 23% -22.6%
all 368 -2.2% -11.5% 36% 23% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover389.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 23% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 22% -30.0%
15% -27.7% 22% -36.8%
20% -34.8% 21% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,122.39 · official $1,122.39 (match) · 3500 history records