Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:57:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

54 0x54e1…b8cd sports 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$119 (-5%) realized −$76 · open −$43

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip

Net edge-18%after slip

Net WR45%break-even

Win rate45%10W / 12L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$104per market

Trades / day0.3pace

Fees−$20est.

Kalshi-fit78%portable

Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days−$309

7 days−$257

14 days−$257

30 days−$257

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +45%

net ROI/market (all)-18.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-9.8%	-18.4%	45%	45%	-19.6%
≤30d	22	-9.8%	-18.4%	45%	45%	-19.6%
≤90d	22	-9.8%	-18.4%	45%	45%	-19.6%
all	22	-9.8%	-18.4%	45%	45%	-19.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-18.4%	45%	-19.6%
10%	-26.2%	41%	-27.3%
15%	-33.3%	41%	-34.3%
20%	-39.9%	41%	-40.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 20% · top 2 38% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -10% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -36% → late +17% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$88 vs −$95 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.77 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage

Net worth$32

Realized−$76

Unrealized−$43

Win rate (resolved)45%

Wins / losses10 / 12

Est. fees paid−$20

Open positions1

Markets (closed)22 / 23

History coverage110d

Avg bet$104

Trades / day0.3

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	Over	51¢	22¢	$75	$32	−$43 (-58%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Zverev vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 22.5	Jun 18	$51	+$43	+85%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	Jun 18	$77	−$75	-97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$22	−$22	-100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	Jun 18	$69	+$161	+232%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	Jun 17	$70	+$65	+92%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	Jun 17	$97	−$97	-100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$37	−$37	-100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 17	$77	−$77	-100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$75	+$78	+104%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$75	+$77	+103%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	Jun 16	$75	+$49	+66%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 16	$93	−$93	-100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	Jun 16	$123	−$123	-100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$107	−$107	-100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 16	$153	−$153	-100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$189	+$104	+55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 14	$97	−$97	-100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	Jun 13	$91	+$19	+21%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$97	+$108	+112%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$97	−$97	-100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5	Jun 11	$250	+$175	+70%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	Jun 11	$292	−$162	-56%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	51¢	$76	1h
Zverev vs. Hanfmann: Match O/U 22.5	BUY Under	53¢	$51	7h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5)	BUY Czechia	27¢	$77	15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	SELL Over	96¢	$231	15h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5	BUY Over	28¢	$69	21h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 4.5	BUY Over	10¢	$22	22h
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5	BUY Over	51¢	$70	29h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5)	BUY Portugal	30¢	$97	29h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	50¢	$37	40h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY Argentina	48¢	$75	41h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	45¢	$77	43h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$152	44h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5	BUY Over	48¢	$75	46h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$124	46h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5	BUY Over	59¢	$75	2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5)	BUY Spain	59¢	$123	3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	49¢	$107	3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	57¢	$153	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	SELL Yes	100¢	$293	4d
Knicks vs. Spurs	BUY Spurs	64¢	$93	4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	63¢	$189	4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	59¢	$97	4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	SELL Over	100¢	$110	4d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5	BUY Over	81¢	$91	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	SELL Yes	100¢	$205	5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	46¢	$97	5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	54¢	$97	6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5	BUY Over	57¢	$51	7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5	BUY Over	58¢	$200	7d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?	BUY No	1¢	$84	109d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.62 · official $31.62 (match) · 48 history records