Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54e1…9de8 sports 898 markets active 1h ago coverage 201d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$601 (-4%) realized −$591 · open −$10
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%388W / 503L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days+$160
14 days+$159
30 days+$126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$769
other 15% +$106
politics 1% +$5
world 1% +$10
crypto 0% +$12
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +117.7% +97.0% 53% 53% +1.8%
≤30d 40 +89.5% +71.4% 50% 50% -2.4%
≤90d 193 +11.8% +1.1% 46% 46% -17.1%
all 891 +0.7% -8.9% 44% 42% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.9% 42% -13.8%
10% -17.6% 41% -22.1%
15% -25.6% 38% -29.6%
20% -32.9% 33% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

201d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$591
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses388 / 503
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions4
Markets (closed)891 / 898
History coverage201d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 891 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $12 −$2 (-17%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 403 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $33 +$21 +62%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 21 $48 −$47 -99%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $10 +$23 +225%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $19 −$5 -24%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 20 $14 +$20 +139%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $46 −$46 -99%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W Jun 20 $9 +$22 +235%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $51 +$31 +61%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$21 +82%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $24 −$19 -79%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $43 −$42 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 +$19 +76%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $25 +$13 +50%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 −$21 -99%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $51 +$21 +42%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $30 +$26 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $31 +$18 +57%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $101 +$32 +31%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $101 +$55 +54%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $73 +$32 +43%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $41 +$35 +86%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $25 +$19 +73%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $32 +$41 +129%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 +$12 +63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $45 −$23 -50%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $21 +$19 +90%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $30 +$20 +66%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 10 $16 −$1 -5%
Urawa Red Diamonds vs. Fagiano Okayama: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $34 −$33 -98%
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin: O/U 3.5 May 10 $49 −$49 -99%
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. 1. FC Union Berlin end in a draw? May 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Real Oviedo vs. Getafe CF end in a draw? May 10 $21 +$14 +64%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Atlas FC: O/U 1.5 May 10 $20 +$12 +62%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 +$15 +330%
O/U 3.5 Rounds May 10 $2 +$2 +119%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $27 −$27 -98%
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-05? May 06 $25 −$25 -98%
Barcelona SC vs. CA Boca Juniors: O/U 1.5 May 06 $16 +$9 +57%
Universidad Central de Venezuela FC vs. Independiente del Valle: O/U 1 May 06 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Manel Kape 100¢ $54 1h
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $48 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $33 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 23¢ $10 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Hyder Amil 33¢ $9 2h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 30¢ $10 2h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 43¢ $10 3h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 30¢ $10 3h
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $33 4h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims SELL Mitch Raposo 99¢ $34 4h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 68¢ $10 4h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 38¢ $10 4h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Mitch Raposo 41¢ $14 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY $15 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $46 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 18h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? AND W BUY 29¢ $9 30h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $8 39h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 90¢ $82 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 91¢ $46 2d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY 13¢ $4 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY $5 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $51 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 20¢ $5 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 10¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $25 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $24 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 48¢ $43 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $25 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.78 · official $41.38 (match) · 1458 history records