Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:56:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
54 0x54e1…69e2 other 50 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$56 (+5%) realized +$86 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -31% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -47% what you keep after slip
Net edge-47%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate32%13W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$28
sports 3% −$7
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 -30.9% -37.5% 32% 29% -3.6%
≤30d 41 -30.9% -37.5% 32% 29% -3.6%
≤90d 41 -30.9% -37.5% 32% 29% -3.6%
all 41 -30.9% -37.5% 32% 29% -3.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.5% 29% -3.6%
10% ← realistic here -43.5% 29% -12.8%
15% -48.9% 24% -21.2%
20% -53.9% 24% -29.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$10 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$86
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses13 / 28
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions9
Markets (closed)41 / 50
History coverage6d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $93 $92 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 53¢ 28¢ $58 $31 −$27 (-46%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-10%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 41¢ 18¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $111 +$137 +124%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $130 −$128 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $86 +$25 +29%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $18 −$14 -75%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $1 $0 -31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $57 +$15 +26%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $2 $0 +5%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 22 $7 −$2 -25%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $16 −$16 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $21 +$16 +77%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $76 +$63 +83%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina finish last in Group B in the 2026 FIFA Wo Jun 20 $1 −$1 -74%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 $0 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $15 +$16 +104%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 19 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$18 +344%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$16 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 5m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 10m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 21m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 23m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 23m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 24m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 29m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 31m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $49 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $13 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $30 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 11h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $15 16h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 17h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 51¢ $46 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 17h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 71¢ $44 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 18h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $50 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $250.01 · official $250.02 (match) · 169 history records